Tropical Storm Rafael could develop into a November hurricane, threatening Louisiana and Florida as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential hurricane. Warnings were issued for preparedness.
Current Storm Status
The National Hurricane Center is actively monitoring a low-pressure area in the Caribbean. Current models show an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression within 48 hours, escalating to a 90% chance in a week. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Rafael. Historically, November hurricanes are rare, with the most recent, Nicole, occurring in 2022. Warm sea-surface temperatures may fuel Rafael’s development.
Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Rafael, as it poses potential risks to Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Warnings predict heavy rains and tropical storm conditions throughout these regions, possibly escalating to hurricane conditions in the Cayman Islands.
Tropical Storm #Rafael Advisory 8: 10:00 AM EST Tuesday November 5, 2024
Full forecast details at: https://t.co/TeLLMFm4vf pic.twitter.com/8XE2sY01zW
— National Hurricane Center (@NWSNHC) November 5, 2024
Path and Projected Impact
Tropical Storm Rafael formed over the Caribbean Sea on November 4, 2024. It is expected to weaken by the time it reaches the Louisiana coast, yet not before showcasing its strength in the Gulf by Saturday. Meteorologist Payton Malone acknowledges the storm’s potential to gather strength en route to Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico, stating “Tropical Storm Rafael is on track to hit the southern tip of Louisiana by Saturday as it continues to gather strength en route to the Gulf of Mexico, and could become a hurricane by the time it hits Cuba.”
Forecast models initially suggested a westward shift, predicting it could become a hurricane by Tuesday. Though the Florida peninsula is not currently in Rafael’s forecast cone, extra moisture may cause muggier conditions and showers in the Tampa Bay area, though tropical storm-force winds are unlikely.
🌀Here is the 9AM update on Tropical Storm #Rafael. No changes as Rafael continues to slowly organize in the Caribbean & is forecast to become a hurricane before landfall over western Cuba. Still a large amount of uncertainty after Wednesday with respect to track & intensity. pic.twitter.com/A2t0iiTZuT
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) November 5, 2024
Preparedness and Precaution
Rafael is projected to reach Cuba as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Wednesday, then move onward, impacting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the surrounding areas with likely floods and mudslides. Warnings are currently active for these regions’ residents to prepare for imminent risks. Jamaica expects minimal coastal flooding, while the Cayman Islands anticipate a storm surge of up to 3 feet.
While the ultimate strength and exact path remain uncertain, vigilance remains critical. As stated by Larry Kelly, “It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.” He further advises continued monitoring throughout this fluctuating situation. Residents should stay informed through local authorities and official channels.
