U.S. Election Days might surge more road fatalities than Super Bowl and New Year celebrations combined. Study reveals that drivers need to operate very cautiously during this time. Reduced police presence remains a factor.
Understanding the Statistics
A study by Redelmeier and Tibshirani highlighted an 18% spike in motor vehicle deaths on U.S. Election Days, drawing data from presidential elections between 1976 and 2004. The findings indicated rates higher than those on Super Bowl Sunday and New Year’s Day. However, a reanalysis by Fan Zhang and Peter M. Aronow using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System claims the risk isn’t statistically significant, suggesting that the original conclusions may have been overstated.
The original analysis found approximately 24 deaths and 800 disabling injuries per election, attributing the surge to increased voter turnout, a high emotional atmosphere, and reduced police presence. The reanalysis focused on using non-parametric statistics and an empirical null distribution, aiming to provide a more nuanced perspective on potentially overstated risks associated with Election Day driving.
The US now has a higher road crash death rate than Russia. Here are some tips on how to survive US roads (thread) #roadsafety #publichealth pic.twitter.com/q1QZUprrGG
— Mark Abraham (@urbandata) May 20, 2024
Contributing Factors
Election Day brings an influx of vehicles as citizens commute to polling stations. Possible factors for increased fatalities include heightened traffic, driver distractions, and unfamiliar routes. Additionally, some drivers may experience heightened emotions and time pressure, causing dangerous driving conditions. With police resources shifted to election security, less traffic enforcement could contribute to the spike, as indicated by the study.
Weak evidence from Zhang and Aronow’s reanalysis suggests election hours present no more significant risk compared to regular days. They also highlighted the non-increased risk between Mondays preceding, and Wednesdays following, elections, challenging the original findings. Their emphasis on cautious interpretation of non-randomized studies provides a critical perspective on analyzing sensitive data.
Enhancing Election Day Road Safety
Safety advocates emphasize the importance of planning safe travel routes on Election Day. Suggesting increased seatbelt use, cautious speeds, and utilization of public transportation can mitigate risks. Local governments might consider warnings in election messaging to remind citizens about driving safety while encouraging extra time allowances for election-related trips.
By bolstering traffic enforcement and public awareness, nationwide road safety during elections can be maintained, ensuring that civic duty doesn’t become a deadly endeavor. The upcoming elections highlight the pressing need for strategies safeguarding both the democratic process and public welfare, reinforcing that while participating in democracy is essential, it should never come at the cost of road safety.
